Sunday, July 1, 2012

GBPUSD Scenarios

For the past year or so, we have been waiting for GBPUSD to complete the 4th wave triangle and head lower. Here is the weekly chart.
However, wave e of the triangle can take any shape itself. It could be a flat or a triangle. Below are the two scenarios from daily perspective that show a possibility of wave e developing as a triangle.

It doesn't really mater if wave e turns out to be a flat or a triangle, the result will be the same, but the duration of forming a triangle would be longer.  A break of 1.51 would signal that wave e is done and we are on the way down to 1.40.  Just as a side note, if wave e of the weekly triangle turns out to be a flat, we might go above 1.63 before crashing down. In any case, a break of 1.51 is needed to signal that the triangle formation on the weekly time frame is over and we are headed much lower.

AUDUSD Possible Scenarios

There is a very high probability that we are in the last stage of finishing the last upward movement in AUDUSD for the next year or so. There are a few scenarios that might play out, so I will present you with the most probable ones.

Here is the monthly chart of AUDUSD.
There is a very small possibility that wave e is already done, but there is also a possibility that it might go to as far as 1.06 area before reversal occurs. So here is what might be expected if this scenario plays out
My second preferred scenario is that we are in  a x wave of a double zigzag. Here is the chart
In this case, the X wave might take any shape from a simple zigzag to a flat that I have shown you with the red lines or even a triangle. So if this scenario plays out, I would expect more sideways action before heading down. In a couple of weeks there will be a clearer picture of which pattern will play out, but for now both scenarios are possible.

Good Luck:)

Thursday, May 3, 2012

GBPNZD Weekly Triangle

It seems that we are very close to completion of wave d of the triangle formed on the weekly chart of GBPNZD. I expect wave e to start within the next few sessions and should lead us to at least  1.92 within a couple of weeks. A break above 2.06 would invalidate this count.

Thursday, April 12, 2012


EURUSD retraced 38.1% from the previous impulsive fall. There are two possibilities for this pair. First possibility is that we are in a 5 wave decline that will lead us bellow 1.26. The second possibility is that we are in progress of a zigzag corrective move, which will lead us to 1.29-1.2850 level and then we will reverse and go all the way back to 1.36. In either case, we have at least 250 pips on the way down.

Good Luck:)

USDCAD update

USDCAD had a 5 wave move followed by a three wave correction. It seems wave c is complete, and we might be headed to 1.01 in the next few sessions. The maximum target for this bullish 5 wave move will be at 1.02

Godd Luck:)

GBPUSD update

Here is the chart that I posted Sunday
As you can see I had wave 2 going all the way back to the 61.8 % retracement level and this is what happened today. Now it is time for wave 3. From 1.5970 level wave 3 should lead us to at least 1.5750 level.

Good luck:)

Monday, April 9, 2012


For the past two weeks we have been following the formation of a triangle in GBPUSD. This is the chart that I showed you last week, and I said that the pair should start moving lower since we need one more leg down for the e wave of the triangle. Now we have completed the first wave down, and we are in the process of  finishing up wave 2, which should be followed by a sharp move down for wave 3. Then we should have some consolidation round the 1.57 level followed by another push lower to 1.56. Although the whole move should end at the 1.5560 area, it would be better to close all short positions at the 1.56 area. Here is the updated chart for this week.
Good Luck:)

Monday, April 2, 2012


For the past two weeks we have been following the move in GBPUSD. Right now we are in the final hours of upward movement in the pair and we should see more pressure to the downside, with initial target of 1.5750. In the last week's post I mentioned that this might be the end of wave E of the triangle formation on the weekly basis(see last week's update on GBPUSD). However if wave E happens not to be complete, we should see some pressure to the downside this week and then it should be followed by very sharp reversal leading us to 1.63 area. I will post an update later in the week when we reach 1.5750 and bellow.

Good Luck:)

Friday, March 30, 2012


It seems that this count of a double three with irregular X is the most probable count for the moment. Today we might see some more upside to the 1.0450-1.05 area and then we should have one more impulsive leg down to the 1.02 area. I will try to update the longer term charts over the weekend.

Good Luck:)

Monday, March 26, 2012


On March 17th I posted this chart of GBPUSD, saying that most probably we are in the process of forming an expanded triangle on the daily chart. Here is the chart that I showed you.
Now we are approaching the 1.6050 area, which should be the termination for wave d and have a sharp reversal with a target of 1.5550.
I would like to mention that it is possible  that the 1.60 area could be the final leg up for the pair since instead of a triangle the formation could be a termination pattern for wave E of the almost complete triangle formation on the weekly chart. It is important to mention that wave E does NOT have to reach the upper boundary of the triangle. The only requirement that we have for wave E is to retrace at least 50 % of wave D(which would be the 1.60 area), so keep that in mind. Here is the weekly chart with the triangle formation

AUDUSD possible developments for this week

It seems that there is a terminal pattern forming on the 4hr chart. If this pattern plays out, we will need one more leg down below 1.04, and then we will have an impulsive rise to 1.06 area. It should take another couple of days for completion of the terminal pattern and have an impulsive rise from 1.04 to 1.06 area. Here is how the whole movement could play out