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Sunday, July 1, 2012

GBPUSD Scenarios

For the past year or so, we have been waiting for GBPUSD to complete the 4th wave triangle and head lower. Here is the weekly chart.
However, wave e of the triangle can take any shape itself. It could be a flat or a triangle. Below are the two scenarios from daily perspective that show a possibility of wave e developing as a triangle.


It doesn't really mater if wave e turns out to be a flat or a triangle, the result will be the same, but the duration of forming a triangle would be longer.  A break of 1.51 would signal that wave e is done and we are on the way down to 1.40.  Just as a side note, if wave e of the weekly triangle turns out to be a flat, we might go above 1.63 before crashing down. In any case, a break of 1.51 is needed to signal that the triangle formation on the weekly time frame is over and we are headed much lower.

AUDUSD Possible Scenarios

There is a very high probability that we are in the last stage of finishing the last upward movement in AUDUSD for the next year or so. There are a few scenarios that might play out, so I will present you with the most probable ones.

Here is the monthly chart of AUDUSD.
There is a very small possibility that wave e is already done, but there is also a possibility that it might go to as far as 1.06 area before reversal occurs. So here is what might be expected if this scenario plays out
My second preferred scenario is that we are in  a x wave of a double zigzag. Here is the chart
In this case, the X wave might take any shape from a simple zigzag to a flat that I have shown you with the red lines or even a triangle. So if this scenario plays out, I would expect more sideways action before heading down. In a couple of weeks there will be a clearer picture of which pattern will play out, but for now both scenarios are possible.

Good Luck:)

Thursday, May 3, 2012

GBPNZD Weekly Triangle

It seems that we are very close to completion of wave d of the triangle formed on the weekly chart of GBPNZD. I expect wave e to start within the next few sessions and should lead us to at least  1.92 within a couple of weeks. A break above 2.06 would invalidate this count.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

EURUSD

EURUSD retraced 38.1% from the previous impulsive fall. There are two possibilities for this pair. First possibility is that we are in a 5 wave decline that will lead us bellow 1.26. The second possibility is that we are in progress of a zigzag corrective move, which will lead us to 1.29-1.2850 level and then we will reverse and go all the way back to 1.36. In either case, we have at least 250 pips on the way down.

Good Luck:)

USDCAD update

USDCAD had a 5 wave move followed by a three wave correction. It seems wave c is complete, and we might be headed to 1.01 in the next few sessions. The maximum target for this bullish 5 wave move will be at 1.02

Godd Luck:)

GBPUSD update

Here is the chart that I posted Sunday
As you can see I had wave 2 going all the way back to the 61.8 % retracement level and this is what happened today. Now it is time for wave 3. From 1.5970 level wave 3 should lead us to at least 1.5750 level.

Good luck:)

Monday, April 9, 2012

GBPUSD Update

For the past two weeks we have been following the formation of a triangle in GBPUSD. This is the chart that I showed you last week, and I said that the pair should start moving lower since we need one more leg down for the e wave of the triangle. Now we have completed the first wave down, and we are in the process of  finishing up wave 2, which should be followed by a sharp move down for wave 3. Then we should have some consolidation round the 1.57 level followed by another push lower to 1.56. Although the whole move should end at the 1.5560 area, it would be better to close all short positions at the 1.56 area. Here is the updated chart for this week.
Good Luck:)

Monday, April 2, 2012

GBPUSD Update


For the past two weeks we have been following the move in GBPUSD. Right now we are in the final hours of upward movement in the pair and we should see more pressure to the downside, with initial target of 1.5750. In the last week's post I mentioned that this might be the end of wave E of the triangle formation on the weekly basis(see last week's update on GBPUSD). However if wave E happens not to be complete, we should see some pressure to the downside this week and then it should be followed by very sharp reversal leading us to 1.63 area. I will post an update later in the week when we reach 1.5750 and bellow.

Good Luck:)

Friday, March 30, 2012

AUDUSD Update

It seems that this count of a double three with irregular X is the most probable count for the moment. Today we might see some more upside to the 1.0450-1.05 area and then we should have one more impulsive leg down to the 1.02 area. I will try to update the longer term charts over the weekend.

Good Luck:)

Monday, March 26, 2012

GBPUSD Update

On March 17th I posted this chart of GBPUSD, saying that most probably we are in the process of forming an expanded triangle on the daily chart. Here is the chart that I showed you.
Now we are approaching the 1.6050 area, which should be the termination for wave d and have a sharp reversal with a target of 1.5550.
I would like to mention that it is possible  that the 1.60 area could be the final leg up for the pair since instead of a triangle the formation could be a termination pattern for wave E of the almost complete triangle formation on the weekly chart. It is important to mention that wave E does NOT have to reach the upper boundary of the triangle. The only requirement that we have for wave E is to retrace at least 50 % of wave D(which would be the 1.60 area), so keep that in mind. Here is the weekly chart with the triangle formation


AUDUSD possible developments for this week

It seems that there is a terminal pattern forming on the 4hr chart. If this pattern plays out, we will need one more leg down below 1.04, and then we will have an impulsive rise to 1.06 area. It should take another couple of days for completion of the terminal pattern and have an impulsive rise from 1.04 to 1.06 area. Here is how the whole movement could play out

Sunday, March 25, 2012

EURUSD



Last week EURUSD traded within the range of 1.31 and 1.33. Due to the rebound on Friday, I think that we might be in wave B of a zigzag formation. This whole move can be counted as a 5 wave move as well, but that would not change the outcome shown on the chart. So far we still need one small push lower to 1.3170-1.3130 area and then we need to get an impulsive move to the upside all the way to 1.3370-1.3400 area. A good strategy would be to go long around 1.3180 area, with take profit at 1.3350. If this scenario plays out, the rise to 1.3380 should be followed by a fast fall to 1.28 area.  A fall bellow 1.3100 area before reaching at least 1.3350, would invalidate this scenario and will call for a decline to 1.28 as an initial target.

Good Luck:)

Saturday, March 17, 2012

GBPUSD Expanding triangle

Here is the daily chart of the GBPUSD pair.

Although there are a few possible scenarios in GBPUSD, I think that the expanding triangle would be the best possibility for wave B. If this is indeed wave B, then a triangle would be the best possibility due to the current upward move in the pair. So I would suspect to have a minor pullback or just open slightly lower and then have a couple of more upside days before topping around 1.6050 area. Then we should have a very sharp sell off for the second part of the week that will lead us all the way down to 1.5550 area. At that point we will have a very clear confirmation that this was indeed wave B triangle and we will have a very good buying opportunity at 1.55 area. The minimum target for wave C would be 1.62. A good strategy for this week would be to wait for the rise above 1.60, and then wait for a daily close bellow 1.60. After we have a daily close bellow 1.60 the whole triangle scenario would be confirmed, and we can sell with take profit at 1.5550.

Good Luck:)

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

USDCAD invalidation

Although we did reach 0.9945, the move looks more corrective in nature. Since we lack any impulsive movements for now, I would not commit either to long or short position for now

USDCAD update

Ok, so we did not get the move higher to 1.00 in USDCAD, and right now it seems that we will be headed lower in a 5 wave sequence that will lead us to at least 0.98/0.9750 area. However we will have a confirmation only if we go back bellow 0.9895, so I would not advise you to sell before we fall below that level. A rise above 0.9945 will invalidate this scenario and will call for a rise to 1.0050. A good strategy would be to sell bellow 0.9895 with take profit at 0.98, , or buy above 0.9945 with take profit at 1.0045
Good Luck:)

AUDUSD Update

 I am watching for a big reversal in AUDUSD. It seems that we are really close to a reversal confirmation, so I am looking for a move above 1.06. NZDUSD and AUDCAD expected to reverse higher as well. Just keep in mind that in case we fall bellow 1.0350, this will be a very strong indicator that the uptrend in AUDUSD is over!!!

USDCAD Possible short term scenario

I
It seems that USDCAD is preparing to exploode to the upside at least in the short term. I will be looking for target around 1.0040

Good Luck

Sunday, March 11, 2012

EURUSD Second scenario

Here is a  second scenario of how things might progress in EURUSD. Please read the previous post, since I think that this scenario is less probable than the scenario presented in the previous post. In both scenarios, we still have more downside in EURUSD this week, but the first scenario is more bearish in the short term.

Good Luck:)

AUDUSD and EURUSD Update

The developments on Friday have changed the bigger picture in both AUDUSD and EURUSD.
EURUSD did not break 1.33 but reversed and closed lower. Now the last move seems to have developed in 5 waves, and I suspect that we have almost complete wave 1 of  larger 5 waves down movement. Here is the chart that illustrates how things might progress this week.
I suspect that wave 5 will end lower than 1.26. Only a break above 1.33 will invalidate this scenario and call for more upside in the pair.

The developments in AUDUSD  also point to more downside in the short term. We might get some down and up swing  but so far it looks like we are going down to the 1.0450 area.
 I wanted to show you  and discuss the daily chart  perspective as well.
Even though the end of wave B is still questionable, if we break through 1.0350 area, I expect to have a collapse bellow 0.90 levels
But so far we do not have clear confirmation that wave B has ended, so until 1.0350 level is broken, I cannot speculate that wave C is in progress.Once 1.0350 is broken the selling will accelerate and lead the pair below 0.90

Friday, March 9, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE

On  Sunday and later on Tuesday I said that 1.0550 and 1.0510 would be ideal levels to go long. In the Sunday post I said that if we keep going down during the first part of the week I will go long during the second part of the week. And it played out exactly as it should have. Now we are in 1.0650 area, and I have received a few emails asking if I am still expecting 1.0550 area. Well we already reached this area on Tuesday, so I DO NOT think that we are going back to 1.05 again. Today is supposed to be a very volatile day, so we might get some retracement for the U.S. numbers, but I do expect that we will continue to move higher in AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD.. Usually with the Nonfarm payrolls if you look at the 5 or 1 minute charts we get a reaction that forms a flat or a zigzag. So we get very small dip/rise, than we go in the opposite direction and so on. SO even if we get a small dip, I still think that we will explode to the upside. I still expect 1.09 in AUDUSD, 1.36 in EURUSD and 0.85 in NZDUSD. The whole scenario to the upside will be invalidate in case we go bellow 1.04 in AUDUSD, 0.80 in NZDUSD and 1.30 in EURUSD. My long term target after this upsides are reached are 0.88 in AUDUSD, 0.69 in NDUSD, and 1.14 in EURUSD. But in the short term I still think that we will get more upside for now. The strategy for today is to wait for the Nonfarm Payrolls and looking to go long after the announcement. If we go much higher today, I will be looking to sell into the second half of next wee, but for now let's concentrate on today's move and I will post more updates over the weekend.

Good Luck:)

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE

About 2 weeks ago, I showed you this chart

We did not reach 1.09, but wave 5 of 3 seems to be complete and now we have wave 4 of c almost complete.
Sunday I posted the following chart.(Please read Sunday's post)
Here I showed you a possibility of having a flat, and even though the move might be counted as 5 waves down instead of a flat, it doesn't really matter, because what is important is what will happen next!. Well what should follow next is wave 5 of c. With that said, it is important to mention that on Sunday I said that the best buying opportunity will we bellow 1.06. Ideally we will go to 1.0550 or even 1.0510 and then it would be a very good opportunity to start building a long position. It is important to mention that a move above 1.07 will mean that this downward move is over and we are on the way to 1.09/1.10.
The situation with NZDUSD is similar to AUDUSD, so I suspect that the reversal in both pairs is coming within the next 24 hours.
As I said in my post on Sunday, if AUDUSD was to continue with the downward movement, I will be looking to buy at the second half of the week. So far this is exactly the case. For the next 24 hours I will be watching for confirmation that this move is over and if we get this confirmation it would be a great buying opportunity both in AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Good Luck:)

Monday, March 5, 2012

EURUSD other possible outcomes

Ok so on Friday I presented you with this chart  and said that the downside could be contained by the channel  that I have shown you on the chart.
However, we might break through the channel and go to around 1.3070 area, or we might have an irregular flat that will lead us all the way down to 1.29 area(see the chart bellow). In case that we go to 1.29 area we will have an amazing buying opportunity, but I will discuss the wave c targets later if this scenario plays out. I do not have any positions in the EURUSD right now, but in case we go bellow 1.3050, I will start building a long position. I will post more updates on EURUSD and AUDUSD as soon as we have possible entry point.


Good Luck:)

Sunday, March 4, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE


 Since I am inclined to believe that the triangle pattern might be invalidated, I want to present you with other  possible developments for this week. I think that  right now we might be in wave c of a flat formation. wave c might be equal to 0.618 times wave a, which is exactly where we closed on Friday. Second target for wave c will be 1.0670 area where wave c will equal wave a, and the third target will be 1.0590 area where wave c will be equal 1.618 times wave a. It would be amazing if we go bellow 1.06, because this would be an amazing buying opportunity. Of course if we do go below 1.06 we need to wait for clear reversal signal before we get commit to a buy position. If we get bellow 1.06 we might reverse around 1.0570 or we might get some extension to the wast wave and go closer to 1.05 area, and this is the reason why I would rather wait for a reversal confirmation before getting into a long position.

 In the larger picture, this wave c might be the end of a larger wave B of a flat formation(see the chart bellow), so the termination of wave c will be also the termination of the larger wave B. Bellow I have shown you what will happen if wave c(B) terminates bellow 1.06. In this case scenario we will get an irregular flat with wave C that has a minimum target of 1.09(this target depends on where wave B terminates) area. In any case in order for this whole scenario to be valid, we need AUDUSD to go bellow 1.0680. If we do not go bellow that level, it means that the triangle scenario posted last week is the correct scenario and we will go straight to 1.0920 area before reversing. It doesn't really matter which scenario will play out, the important thing to remember is that if we continue higher from here, we will be looking to start building short position towards the second half of the week, and if we go lower from here, we will be looking to start building  long position towards the second half of the week.
Good Luck:)

Friday, March 2, 2012

EURUSD update

Last Friday I posted this chart and EURUSD was 1.3410 and I said that it was overbought and might get to 1.3485-1.35 for the session but to be cautious because it was overbought. So we did go to 1.3480  and then this week we corrected and repeated the attempt to go higher but with no luck so far. So this is the chart prom last Friday. Please take a look at the chart and read the post from last Friday.
Now lets take a look at what do we have so far this week
Last week it looked like that we are going to get a zigzag, but as we can see from this week the movement last Friday was only 3 waves and today we also will finish with three waves down. So what formations do we have that start with 3,3. Well we have a flat that I have showed on the chart, and we have triangle. In either case  1.36  as a minimum target is in the cards for now. Please notice that the b wave can go as far as 1.3120  area, where is the downward boundary of the channel that I have showed above. So for next week I expect maybe  to gap down or open at the today's closing levels and go down for a few hours and then reverse and go straight up to 1.36. In case we it plays out as a flat, we have 5 waves up for c, and in case it plays out as a triangle we will have 3 waves up, 3 waves down and another 3 waves up.

Good Luck:)

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE

Ok so we did get wave 3 terminate at 1.0850 area today:) Now we are half way through wave 4. By definition, wave 4 should be 1.618 times wave 2, which lead us to 1.0690 area as a possible termination for wave 4. Then we will have wave 5 which by definition should be 1.618 times wave 3. which is 1.1020 area if wave 4 terminates at 1.0690. Keep in mind that wave 5 tends to undershoot or overshoot the triangle barrier, but it must exceed wave 3 if this formation is indeed an expanded diagonal triangle, so in any case the minimum  target for wave 5 is  1.0900.and maximum around 1.1070. 

Good Luck:)

AUDUSD UPDATE

 Ok, so yesterday I said that we might get some kind of an expanding diagonal triangle. So far it looks like that we are almost done with wave 3 and wave 4 should be in progress within 12 hours or so. Below is the chart of a leading diagonal displaying basically the same idea, but with a smaller retracement for wave 4. As I said yesterday there are many ways this can play out, but those are good possibilities for now. In either case we still need wave 5 so more upside is expected. There is a possibility that we might shoot straight up to 1.09/1.0920 or get an irregular flat as I showed in yesterdays post so I would not advise you to sell at those levels right now. I think that the best strategy could be to buy if we get wave 4 and once we have a confirmation that wave 4 is completed it would be possible to enter long position. In case it plays out as an expanding diagonal triangle, we need to go to 1.0840/1.0850 before wave 4 begins, so keep those levels in mind.
Good Luck:)

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

USDCAD and AUDUSD Update

 Ok so we did get the reversal in both USDCAD and AUDUSD.  However, the structures in both look like 3 waves structures for now. This means that in USDCAD we might reach the 0.9920/0.9900 levels and then have some upward movement for at least 30 pips. As you know from my posts from last week, my target in USDCAD for now is 0.9811 but that doesn't mean that we are going to reach it before we have some consolidation or correction first, so be cautious around the 0.9920/0.9900 area.
This chart of AUDUSD was shown in my video update on Sunday. However there are many ways a corrective pattern can play out so on Sunday I showed this just to show one way of how it might play out. We might get an expanding diagonal triangle that will look like this.
As I said, there are many ways that this can play out, but those good possibilities of how things might play out. But it doesn't really matter since the important target 1.0900/1.0920 area.
I want to emphasize that my longer term counts are very bearish for AUDUSD, and very bullish for USDCAD so those scenarios are scenarios that might play out in the next week or two, but from my daily chart on AUDUSD posted last week, I see a very sharp reversal in AUDUSD once wave c(B) is completed. But we are are still not there, so we will see how it looks like when we do:)

Good Luck

Monday, February 27, 2012

USDCAD Update


On the 4hr chart we can see that we are still in consolidation mode and right now we are in the progress of a zigzag formation. wave c might equal 0.618 of a which is 1.0020/1.0030 area, or wave c might be equal or 1.618 the length of a. I think that the most probable scenarios is wave c to be  0.618 of a or wave c to equal a in which case we will reverse in the 1.0050/1.0060 area. There is a possibility that this zigzag might be followed by a second zigzag, but for now I am concentrating on the developments of the next 24 hour, so no matter what how it plays out, we will still have some retracement as soon as wave c terminates. Just keep in mind that with Crude Oil at $ 109, more upside in the pair is not feasible unless we have a sharp fall in Crude Oil prices.

Good Luck:)

Sunday, February 26, 2012

AUDUSD

OK so the preferred count of a 5 wave impulse is out(see the video from last update). Now we will  have some other kind of a complex structure, most probably a flat or irregular flat or a triangle, or a flat followed by a triangle. Keep in mind that Yen is falling and this creates additional volatility in the market. I will post an updated count as soon as we have some more structural changes.

AUDUSD UPDATE

Hey guys, here is a video update on the AUDUSD for this week. I will post updates every day this week, to follow up on the developments in the AUDUSD. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvjHGJiPb50

Friday, February 24, 2012

EURUSD update

Right now we have EURUSD at 1.3410. This is the .618 of a(dark blue) so I expect to have some kind of retracement here, or at least to play with this resistance for a few more hours. After we break through this resistance today or next week another important level to watch is the 1.3595 which is 50% of the whole move for wave A(light blue). Next we have 1.3670 where wave c(dark blue) equals wave a(dark blue). Last possible level for reversal is 1.3815 which is 61.8% retracement of the whole move of wave A(light blue). But lets not get carried away and  concentrate on the 1.36 area for now. Right now EURUSD is in overbought territory so we might go to around 1.35 area today, but this is kind of my high for today 1.3485-1.3500.

Good luck:)

Thursday, February 23, 2012

USDCAD Update

Posted this chart at the beginning of the week. As I said in my previous post,  wave 4 might still be in progress. It seems that today wave 5 have finally started and will lead us all the way down to .09811

AUDUSD 1hr chart update

Wave 2 in progress!!! wave 2 should be in 3 waves, so far we have two, so I suspect that we might get another dip to around 1.0645-1.0630 and then wave 3 should follow before or around the beginning of the Asian session!!!

Good Luck:)

AUDUSD Daily Chart Detailed Count

Here is the daily wave count of AUDUSD I believe that we are in wave 5 (red) of 3 (blue) that will lead us all the way to 1.0920 area. Later we should have some retracement for wave 4(blue) and finally complete wave 5(blue) of C around 1.1020 area.  As I said in my previous post on the daily chart of AUDUSD, the end of wave c will be also the end of wave B of the flat formation(please see the previous post on the daily chart of AUDUSD). As I said in the previous post, the formation might be irregular flat, that means that wave B might terminate around 1.14 and then have wave C leading all the way down to sub .90's levels.

Good luck:)

AUDUSD 1hr chart

The last move in AUDUSD looks like an impulse. This is why I am inclined to believe that wave 5 might be in progress. So we have wave 1 terminates around 1.07 and then we have some retracement for wave 2. wave 3 is usually very powerful and extended, so I expect it to lead us all the way to 1.0850. Then we should get some consolidation for wave 4 followed by wave 5 with a target of 1.09 and above.

Good luck:)

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

AUDUSD Daily chart


The AUDUSD might be bottoming and getting ready for another test of the 1.0850 levels. I suspect that we might be forming a flat on the daily chart, so the end level of B should be somewhere around 1.10. However, there is a possibility of a formation of expanded flat that will lead us all the way to  around 1.14 and then we will have wave C going all the way down to 0.80 levels. In either case we need one more leg up and from there we might have a clearer picture of how things will develop further down the road:)
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Good Luck:)

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

AUDCAD 4hr wave count

On the AUDCAD 4hr chart we have a flat with B wave as irregular. Wave C=A, so we might reverse here, or we might ger an extended wave C with a target of 1.618 wave A which would lead us all the way down to 1.0566. In either case we might see a reversal that will lead us back above 1.07.

Good luck:)


USDCAD DAILY CHART

As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, I expect USDCAD to reverse soon.  On the daily chart we can see that one of the possibilities is a zigzag with a complex wave B being a triangle. Ideally wave C should be equal to wave A which would lead us all the way down to 0.96 levels. However there is a good possibility that wave C terminates at 0.618 of wave A which will give us a final target of 0.9811. It is important to emphasize that 0.9811 is also 0.618 the distance traveled from wave 1 to the end of wave 3, and this is why I think that it is important to watch for reversal around the 0.98. As of now, we might still be in wave 4 consolidation, but once we have a confirmation that wave 5 is in progress we might get a clear picture of how things will develop. It is important to say that  AUDUSD and NZDUSD have not completed wave 5 as well, ( UNLESS we have truncated wave 5).In any case I would prefer to wait and buy USDCAD after we have a confirmation. It seems that Crude Oil is forming a flat or it might be even an expanded flat which would lead us to price ranges of $115-120. This is one more reason to believe that the commodity currencies will have one more move to the upside.As I said USDCAD is probably still in wave 4, so some more consolidation is possible.

Good Luck:)