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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE

Ok so we did get wave 3 terminate at 1.0850 area today:) Now we are half way through wave 4. By definition, wave 4 should be 1.618 times wave 2, which lead us to 1.0690 area as a possible termination for wave 4. Then we will have wave 5 which by definition should be 1.618 times wave 3. which is 1.1020 area if wave 4 terminates at 1.0690. Keep in mind that wave 5 tends to undershoot or overshoot the triangle barrier, but it must exceed wave 3 if this formation is indeed an expanded diagonal triangle, so in any case the minimum  target for wave 5 is  1.0900.and maximum around 1.1070. 

Good Luck:)

AUDUSD UPDATE

 Ok, so yesterday I said that we might get some kind of an expanding diagonal triangle. So far it looks like that we are almost done with wave 3 and wave 4 should be in progress within 12 hours or so. Below is the chart of a leading diagonal displaying basically the same idea, but with a smaller retracement for wave 4. As I said yesterday there are many ways this can play out, but those are good possibilities for now. In either case we still need wave 5 so more upside is expected. There is a possibility that we might shoot straight up to 1.09/1.0920 or get an irregular flat as I showed in yesterdays post so I would not advise you to sell at those levels right now. I think that the best strategy could be to buy if we get wave 4 and once we have a confirmation that wave 4 is completed it would be possible to enter long position. In case it plays out as an expanding diagonal triangle, we need to go to 1.0840/1.0850 before wave 4 begins, so keep those levels in mind.
Good Luck:)

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

USDCAD and AUDUSD Update

 Ok so we did get the reversal in both USDCAD and AUDUSD.  However, the structures in both look like 3 waves structures for now. This means that in USDCAD we might reach the 0.9920/0.9900 levels and then have some upward movement for at least 30 pips. As you know from my posts from last week, my target in USDCAD for now is 0.9811 but that doesn't mean that we are going to reach it before we have some consolidation or correction first, so be cautious around the 0.9920/0.9900 area.
This chart of AUDUSD was shown in my video update on Sunday. However there are many ways a corrective pattern can play out so on Sunday I showed this just to show one way of how it might play out. We might get an expanding diagonal triangle that will look like this.
As I said, there are many ways that this can play out, but those good possibilities of how things might play out. But it doesn't really matter since the important target 1.0900/1.0920 area.
I want to emphasize that my longer term counts are very bearish for AUDUSD, and very bullish for USDCAD so those scenarios are scenarios that might play out in the next week or two, but from my daily chart on AUDUSD posted last week, I see a very sharp reversal in AUDUSD once wave c(B) is completed. But we are are still not there, so we will see how it looks like when we do:)

Good Luck

Monday, February 27, 2012

USDCAD Update


On the 4hr chart we can see that we are still in consolidation mode and right now we are in the progress of a zigzag formation. wave c might equal 0.618 of a which is 1.0020/1.0030 area, or wave c might be equal or 1.618 the length of a. I think that the most probable scenarios is wave c to be  0.618 of a or wave c to equal a in which case we will reverse in the 1.0050/1.0060 area. There is a possibility that this zigzag might be followed by a second zigzag, but for now I am concentrating on the developments of the next 24 hour, so no matter what how it plays out, we will still have some retracement as soon as wave c terminates. Just keep in mind that with Crude Oil at $ 109, more upside in the pair is not feasible unless we have a sharp fall in Crude Oil prices.

Good Luck:)

Sunday, February 26, 2012

AUDUSD

OK so the preferred count of a 5 wave impulse is out(see the video from last update). Now we will  have some other kind of a complex structure, most probably a flat or irregular flat or a triangle, or a flat followed by a triangle. Keep in mind that Yen is falling and this creates additional volatility in the market. I will post an updated count as soon as we have some more structural changes.

AUDUSD UPDATE

Hey guys, here is a video update on the AUDUSD for this week. I will post updates every day this week, to follow up on the developments in the AUDUSD. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvjHGJiPb50

Friday, February 24, 2012

EURUSD update

Right now we have EURUSD at 1.3410. This is the .618 of a(dark blue) so I expect to have some kind of retracement here, or at least to play with this resistance for a few more hours. After we break through this resistance today or next week another important level to watch is the 1.3595 which is 50% of the whole move for wave A(light blue). Next we have 1.3670 where wave c(dark blue) equals wave a(dark blue). Last possible level for reversal is 1.3815 which is 61.8% retracement of the whole move of wave A(light blue). But lets not get carried away and  concentrate on the 1.36 area for now. Right now EURUSD is in overbought territory so we might go to around 1.35 area today, but this is kind of my high for today 1.3485-1.3500.

Good luck:)

Thursday, February 23, 2012

USDCAD Update

Posted this chart at the beginning of the week. As I said in my previous post,  wave 4 might still be in progress. It seems that today wave 5 have finally started and will lead us all the way down to .09811

AUDUSD 1hr chart update

Wave 2 in progress!!! wave 2 should be in 3 waves, so far we have two, so I suspect that we might get another dip to around 1.0645-1.0630 and then wave 3 should follow before or around the beginning of the Asian session!!!

Good Luck:)

AUDUSD Daily Chart Detailed Count

Here is the daily wave count of AUDUSD I believe that we are in wave 5 (red) of 3 (blue) that will lead us all the way to 1.0920 area. Later we should have some retracement for wave 4(blue) and finally complete wave 5(blue) of C around 1.1020 area.  As I said in my previous post on the daily chart of AUDUSD, the end of wave c will be also the end of wave B of the flat formation(please see the previous post on the daily chart of AUDUSD). As I said in the previous post, the formation might be irregular flat, that means that wave B might terminate around 1.14 and then have wave C leading all the way down to sub .90's levels.

Good luck:)

AUDUSD 1hr chart

The last move in AUDUSD looks like an impulse. This is why I am inclined to believe that wave 5 might be in progress. So we have wave 1 terminates around 1.07 and then we have some retracement for wave 2. wave 3 is usually very powerful and extended, so I expect it to lead us all the way to 1.0850. Then we should get some consolidation for wave 4 followed by wave 5 with a target of 1.09 and above.

Good luck:)

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

AUDUSD Daily chart


The AUDUSD might be bottoming and getting ready for another test of the 1.0850 levels. I suspect that we might be forming a flat on the daily chart, so the end level of B should be somewhere around 1.10. However, there is a possibility of a formation of expanded flat that will lead us all the way to  around 1.14 and then we will have wave C going all the way down to 0.80 levels. In either case we need one more leg up and from there we might have a clearer picture of how things will develop further down the road:)
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Good Luck:)

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

AUDCAD 4hr wave count

On the AUDCAD 4hr chart we have a flat with B wave as irregular. Wave C=A, so we might reverse here, or we might ger an extended wave C with a target of 1.618 wave A which would lead us all the way down to 1.0566. In either case we might see a reversal that will lead us back above 1.07.

Good luck:)


USDCAD DAILY CHART

As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, I expect USDCAD to reverse soon.  On the daily chart we can see that one of the possibilities is a zigzag with a complex wave B being a triangle. Ideally wave C should be equal to wave A which would lead us all the way down to 0.96 levels. However there is a good possibility that wave C terminates at 0.618 of wave A which will give us a final target of 0.9811. It is important to emphasize that 0.9811 is also 0.618 the distance traveled from wave 1 to the end of wave 3, and this is why I think that it is important to watch for reversal around the 0.98. As of now, we might still be in wave 4 consolidation, but once we have a confirmation that wave 5 is in progress we might get a clear picture of how things will develop. It is important to say that  AUDUSD and NZDUSD have not completed wave 5 as well, ( UNLESS we have truncated wave 5).In any case I would prefer to wait and buy USDCAD after we have a confirmation. It seems that Crude Oil is forming a flat or it might be even an expanded flat which would lead us to price ranges of $115-120. This is one more reason to believe that the commodity currencies will have one more move to the upside.As I said USDCAD is probably still in wave 4, so some more consolidation is possible.

Good Luck:)

Sunday, February 19, 2012

HERE ARE THE FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS TO FINISH THE CORRECTION IN NZDUSD!!!


Here are the four possible scenarios to finish corrective wave 4. The first scenario is irregular followed by flat. The second scenario is irregular followed by irregular. The third scenario is irregular followed by zigzag(there is a chance the C wave of the zigzag to terminate very close to the preceding wave C as well), and the fourth scenario is irregular followed by a triangle.
It doesn't really matter which way it is going to play out, since in all cases it resolves to the upside, but having visuals of all the options will give us a good chance to enter the 5th wave at earlier stage. Keep in mind that the 5th wave should be equal to at least 390 pips up to 600 pips, so the minimum target after the correction is completed is .8570.

Good luck!!!

Friday, February 17, 2012

NZDUSD Daily

As I said earlier we are close to finishing wave c(B) so we should be prepared for a sharp reversal. However, I think that we might be in for another leg up next week, before we reverse. For now I still do not see a clear 5th wave of c and although we might have the 5th wave in at 0.8415 I would rather wait to see how will next week develop. As I said in my post of the weekly chart, wave c(B) will ideally terminate around 0.86/0.87, but this is a textbook scenario which might not play out perfectly. For now I will be watching how it reacts to the 1.382 at 0.8475. The greatest possibility for reversal is between 0.8475 and 0.8675. So I suggest that you watch those levels carefully.
The whole movement from August until now is a textbook example of a Zigzag followed by Irregular.

Good luck:)
There is an irregular forming on the NZDUSD's weekly chart. Ideally wave B will terminate between 0.86 and 0.87, but we might reverse a little bit before that. Anyway, the idea is not to chase the top, but catch at least 2/3rds of wave C. Wave C will go minimum to 0.72, so if we wait for confirmation of reversal  which currently comes at around 0.81, we will still be able to make a very good profit. We might have and extended wave C, which would lead us all the way to at least .69.  I will revisit this chart as soon as I have a confirmation for reversal, to discuss wave C in more details.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

S&P Weekly Chart Scenarios

 We have a great butterfly pattern that indicates that the uptrend could reverse around 1380.

Another perspective would be that the current leg up is forming a B wave of a flat!!!
A lot of people think that we are in a new multi-year uptrend, but we might be in for a powerful leg down that would surprise everyone. If the flat scenario occurs, I would suspect that S&P's minimum target would be 1020/1030 level.

Just be aware that those are just possibilities. Markets change every minute of the day, so we need to adjust our view constantly.
Those are valid patterns, but nothing is set in stone until we have a reversal confirmation, so DO NOT  act on still only potential developments. If we get a reversal we will have about 3-5 months of selling so I do not see any reason to jump in a short trade in advance.

USDCAD Weekly Chart

Keep in mind that we might be in the process of forming reversed head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. It is a very long shot but after the next leg down which might lead us to around 0.97 we might see a very fast reversal that will lead us to at least 1.12. As I said it is still too early to say, but it is a possibility in the not very distant future.

USDCAD 4H

USDCAD first target of 1.0070 still not reached.  I think that we might run up again to reach minimum target 1

EURUSD reversal or close to reversal!!!


As we can see EURUSD reached the 50 % retracement target, but I think that there is a very good chance of reaching for 61.8 (1.29 area)before reversing higher. The minimum target would be 1.3420 with a chance of reaching 1.3615. Completion of wave B will be followed by a very sharp reversal to the downside targeting 1.18 (minimum target).