Tuesday, February 21, 2012


As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, I expect USDCAD to reverse soon.  On the daily chart we can see that one of the possibilities is a zigzag with a complex wave B being a triangle. Ideally wave C should be equal to wave A which would lead us all the way down to 0.96 levels. However there is a good possibility that wave C terminates at 0.618 of wave A which will give us a final target of 0.9811. It is important to emphasize that 0.9811 is also 0.618 the distance traveled from wave 1 to the end of wave 3, and this is why I think that it is important to watch for reversal around the 0.98. As of now, we might still be in wave 4 consolidation, but once we have a confirmation that wave 5 is in progress we might get a clear picture of how things will develop. It is important to say that  AUDUSD and NZDUSD have not completed wave 5 as well, ( UNLESS we have truncated wave 5).In any case I would prefer to wait and buy USDCAD after we have a confirmation. It seems that Crude Oil is forming a flat or it might be even an expanded flat which would lead us to price ranges of $115-120. This is one more reason to believe that the commodity currencies will have one more move to the upside.As I said USDCAD is probably still in wave 4, so some more consolidation is possible.

Good Luck:)

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