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Friday, March 30, 2012

AUDUSD Update

It seems that this count of a double three with irregular X is the most probable count for the moment. Today we might see some more upside to the 1.0450-1.05 area and then we should have one more impulsive leg down to the 1.02 area. I will try to update the longer term charts over the weekend.

Good Luck:)

Monday, March 26, 2012

GBPUSD Update

On March 17th I posted this chart of GBPUSD, saying that most probably we are in the process of forming an expanded triangle on the daily chart. Here is the chart that I showed you.
Now we are approaching the 1.6050 area, which should be the termination for wave d and have a sharp reversal with a target of 1.5550.
I would like to mention that it is possible  that the 1.60 area could be the final leg up for the pair since instead of a triangle the formation could be a termination pattern for wave E of the almost complete triangle formation on the weekly chart. It is important to mention that wave E does NOT have to reach the upper boundary of the triangle. The only requirement that we have for wave E is to retrace at least 50 % of wave D(which would be the 1.60 area), so keep that in mind. Here is the weekly chart with the triangle formation


AUDUSD possible developments for this week

It seems that there is a terminal pattern forming on the 4hr chart. If this pattern plays out, we will need one more leg down below 1.04, and then we will have an impulsive rise to 1.06 area. It should take another couple of days for completion of the terminal pattern and have an impulsive rise from 1.04 to 1.06 area. Here is how the whole movement could play out

Sunday, March 25, 2012

EURUSD



Last week EURUSD traded within the range of 1.31 and 1.33. Due to the rebound on Friday, I think that we might be in wave B of a zigzag formation. This whole move can be counted as a 5 wave move as well, but that would not change the outcome shown on the chart. So far we still need one small push lower to 1.3170-1.3130 area and then we need to get an impulsive move to the upside all the way to 1.3370-1.3400 area. A good strategy would be to go long around 1.3180 area, with take profit at 1.3350. If this scenario plays out, the rise to 1.3380 should be followed by a fast fall to 1.28 area.  A fall bellow 1.3100 area before reaching at least 1.3350, would invalidate this scenario and will call for a decline to 1.28 as an initial target.

Good Luck:)

Saturday, March 17, 2012

GBPUSD Expanding triangle

Here is the daily chart of the GBPUSD pair.

Although there are a few possible scenarios in GBPUSD, I think that the expanding triangle would be the best possibility for wave B. If this is indeed wave B, then a triangle would be the best possibility due to the current upward move in the pair. So I would suspect to have a minor pullback or just open slightly lower and then have a couple of more upside days before topping around 1.6050 area. Then we should have a very sharp sell off for the second part of the week that will lead us all the way down to 1.5550 area. At that point we will have a very clear confirmation that this was indeed wave B triangle and we will have a very good buying opportunity at 1.55 area. The minimum target for wave C would be 1.62. A good strategy for this week would be to wait for the rise above 1.60, and then wait for a daily close bellow 1.60. After we have a daily close bellow 1.60 the whole triangle scenario would be confirmed, and we can sell with take profit at 1.5550.

Good Luck:)

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

USDCAD invalidation

Although we did reach 0.9945, the move looks more corrective in nature. Since we lack any impulsive movements for now, I would not commit either to long or short position for now

USDCAD update

Ok, so we did not get the move higher to 1.00 in USDCAD, and right now it seems that we will be headed lower in a 5 wave sequence that will lead us to at least 0.98/0.9750 area. However we will have a confirmation only if we go back bellow 0.9895, so I would not advise you to sell before we fall below that level. A rise above 0.9945 will invalidate this scenario and will call for a rise to 1.0050. A good strategy would be to sell bellow 0.9895 with take profit at 0.98, , or buy above 0.9945 with take profit at 1.0045
Good Luck:)

AUDUSD Update

 I am watching for a big reversal in AUDUSD. It seems that we are really close to a reversal confirmation, so I am looking for a move above 1.06. NZDUSD and AUDCAD expected to reverse higher as well. Just keep in mind that in case we fall bellow 1.0350, this will be a very strong indicator that the uptrend in AUDUSD is over!!!

USDCAD Possible short term scenario

I
It seems that USDCAD is preparing to exploode to the upside at least in the short term. I will be looking for target around 1.0040

Good Luck

Sunday, March 11, 2012

EURUSD Second scenario

Here is a  second scenario of how things might progress in EURUSD. Please read the previous post, since I think that this scenario is less probable than the scenario presented in the previous post. In both scenarios, we still have more downside in EURUSD this week, but the first scenario is more bearish in the short term.

Good Luck:)

AUDUSD and EURUSD Update

The developments on Friday have changed the bigger picture in both AUDUSD and EURUSD.
EURUSD did not break 1.33 but reversed and closed lower. Now the last move seems to have developed in 5 waves, and I suspect that we have almost complete wave 1 of  larger 5 waves down movement. Here is the chart that illustrates how things might progress this week.
I suspect that wave 5 will end lower than 1.26. Only a break above 1.33 will invalidate this scenario and call for more upside in the pair.

The developments in AUDUSD  also point to more downside in the short term. We might get some down and up swing  but so far it looks like we are going down to the 1.0450 area.
 I wanted to show you  and discuss the daily chart  perspective as well.
Even though the end of wave B is still questionable, if we break through 1.0350 area, I expect to have a collapse bellow 0.90 levels
But so far we do not have clear confirmation that wave B has ended, so until 1.0350 level is broken, I cannot speculate that wave C is in progress.Once 1.0350 is broken the selling will accelerate and lead the pair below 0.90

Friday, March 9, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE

On  Sunday and later on Tuesday I said that 1.0550 and 1.0510 would be ideal levels to go long. In the Sunday post I said that if we keep going down during the first part of the week I will go long during the second part of the week. And it played out exactly as it should have. Now we are in 1.0650 area, and I have received a few emails asking if I am still expecting 1.0550 area. Well we already reached this area on Tuesday, so I DO NOT think that we are going back to 1.05 again. Today is supposed to be a very volatile day, so we might get some retracement for the U.S. numbers, but I do expect that we will continue to move higher in AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD.. Usually with the Nonfarm payrolls if you look at the 5 or 1 minute charts we get a reaction that forms a flat or a zigzag. So we get very small dip/rise, than we go in the opposite direction and so on. SO even if we get a small dip, I still think that we will explode to the upside. I still expect 1.09 in AUDUSD, 1.36 in EURUSD and 0.85 in NZDUSD. The whole scenario to the upside will be invalidate in case we go bellow 1.04 in AUDUSD, 0.80 in NZDUSD and 1.30 in EURUSD. My long term target after this upsides are reached are 0.88 in AUDUSD, 0.69 in NDUSD, and 1.14 in EURUSD. But in the short term I still think that we will get more upside for now. The strategy for today is to wait for the Nonfarm Payrolls and looking to go long after the announcement. If we go much higher today, I will be looking to sell into the second half of next wee, but for now let's concentrate on today's move and I will post more updates over the weekend.

Good Luck:)

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE

About 2 weeks ago, I showed you this chart

We did not reach 1.09, but wave 5 of 3 seems to be complete and now we have wave 4 of c almost complete.
Sunday I posted the following chart.(Please read Sunday's post)
Here I showed you a possibility of having a flat, and even though the move might be counted as 5 waves down instead of a flat, it doesn't really matter, because what is important is what will happen next!. Well what should follow next is wave 5 of c. With that said, it is important to mention that on Sunday I said that the best buying opportunity will we bellow 1.06. Ideally we will go to 1.0550 or even 1.0510 and then it would be a very good opportunity to start building a long position. It is important to mention that a move above 1.07 will mean that this downward move is over and we are on the way to 1.09/1.10.
The situation with NZDUSD is similar to AUDUSD, so I suspect that the reversal in both pairs is coming within the next 24 hours.
As I said in my post on Sunday, if AUDUSD was to continue with the downward movement, I will be looking to buy at the second half of the week. So far this is exactly the case. For the next 24 hours I will be watching for confirmation that this move is over and if we get this confirmation it would be a great buying opportunity both in AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Good Luck:)

Monday, March 5, 2012

EURUSD other possible outcomes

Ok so on Friday I presented you with this chart  and said that the downside could be contained by the channel  that I have shown you on the chart.
However, we might break through the channel and go to around 1.3070 area, or we might have an irregular flat that will lead us all the way down to 1.29 area(see the chart bellow). In case that we go to 1.29 area we will have an amazing buying opportunity, but I will discuss the wave c targets later if this scenario plays out. I do not have any positions in the EURUSD right now, but in case we go bellow 1.3050, I will start building a long position. I will post more updates on EURUSD and AUDUSD as soon as we have possible entry point.


Good Luck:)

Sunday, March 4, 2012

AUDUSD UPDATE


 Since I am inclined to believe that the triangle pattern might be invalidated, I want to present you with other  possible developments for this week. I think that  right now we might be in wave c of a flat formation. wave c might be equal to 0.618 times wave a, which is exactly where we closed on Friday. Second target for wave c will be 1.0670 area where wave c will equal wave a, and the third target will be 1.0590 area where wave c will be equal 1.618 times wave a. It would be amazing if we go bellow 1.06, because this would be an amazing buying opportunity. Of course if we do go below 1.06 we need to wait for clear reversal signal before we get commit to a buy position. If we get bellow 1.06 we might reverse around 1.0570 or we might get some extension to the wast wave and go closer to 1.05 area, and this is the reason why I would rather wait for a reversal confirmation before getting into a long position.

 In the larger picture, this wave c might be the end of a larger wave B of a flat formation(see the chart bellow), so the termination of wave c will be also the termination of the larger wave B. Bellow I have shown you what will happen if wave c(B) terminates bellow 1.06. In this case scenario we will get an irregular flat with wave C that has a minimum target of 1.09(this target depends on where wave B terminates) area. In any case in order for this whole scenario to be valid, we need AUDUSD to go bellow 1.0680. If we do not go bellow that level, it means that the triangle scenario posted last week is the correct scenario and we will go straight to 1.0920 area before reversing. It doesn't really matter which scenario will play out, the important thing to remember is that if we continue higher from here, we will be looking to start building short position towards the second half of the week, and if we go lower from here, we will be looking to start building  long position towards the second half of the week.
Good Luck:)

Friday, March 2, 2012

EURUSD update

Last Friday I posted this chart and EURUSD was 1.3410 and I said that it was overbought and might get to 1.3485-1.35 for the session but to be cautious because it was overbought. So we did go to 1.3480  and then this week we corrected and repeated the attempt to go higher but with no luck so far. So this is the chart prom last Friday. Please take a look at the chart and read the post from last Friday.
Now lets take a look at what do we have so far this week
Last week it looked like that we are going to get a zigzag, but as we can see from this week the movement last Friday was only 3 waves and today we also will finish with three waves down. So what formations do we have that start with 3,3. Well we have a flat that I have showed on the chart, and we have triangle. In either case  1.36  as a minimum target is in the cards for now. Please notice that the b wave can go as far as 1.3120  area, where is the downward boundary of the channel that I have showed above. So for next week I expect maybe  to gap down or open at the today's closing levels and go down for a few hours and then reverse and go straight up to 1.36. In case we it plays out as a flat, we have 5 waves up for c, and in case it plays out as a triangle we will have 3 waves up, 3 waves down and another 3 waves up.

Good Luck:)