Sunday, March 11, 2012


The developments on Friday have changed the bigger picture in both AUDUSD and EURUSD.
EURUSD did not break 1.33 but reversed and closed lower. Now the last move seems to have developed in 5 waves, and I suspect that we have almost complete wave 1 of  larger 5 waves down movement. Here is the chart that illustrates how things might progress this week.
I suspect that wave 5 will end lower than 1.26. Only a break above 1.33 will invalidate this scenario and call for more upside in the pair.

The developments in AUDUSD  also point to more downside in the short term. We might get some down and up swing  but so far it looks like we are going down to the 1.0450 area.
 I wanted to show you  and discuss the daily chart  perspective as well.
Even though the end of wave B is still questionable, if we break through 1.0350 area, I expect to have a collapse bellow 0.90 levels
But so far we do not have clear confirmation that wave B has ended, so until 1.0350 level is broken, I cannot speculate that wave C is in progress.Once 1.0350 is broken the selling will accelerate and lead the pair below 0.90

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