Sunday, July 1, 2012

GBPUSD Scenarios

For the past year or so, we have been waiting for GBPUSD to complete the 4th wave triangle and head lower. Here is the weekly chart.
However, wave e of the triangle can take any shape itself. It could be a flat or a triangle. Below are the two scenarios from daily perspective that show a possibility of wave e developing as a triangle.

It doesn't really mater if wave e turns out to be a flat or a triangle, the result will be the same, but the duration of forming a triangle would be longer.  A break of 1.51 would signal that wave e is done and we are on the way down to 1.40.  Just as a side note, if wave e of the weekly triangle turns out to be a flat, we might go above 1.63 before crashing down. In any case, a break of 1.51 is needed to signal that the triangle formation on the weekly time frame is over and we are headed much lower.

AUDUSD Possible Scenarios

There is a very high probability that we are in the last stage of finishing the last upward movement in AUDUSD for the next year or so. There are a few scenarios that might play out, so I will present you with the most probable ones.

Here is the monthly chart of AUDUSD.
There is a very small possibility that wave e is already done, but there is also a possibility that it might go to as far as 1.06 area before reversal occurs. So here is what might be expected if this scenario plays out
My second preferred scenario is that we are in  a x wave of a double zigzag. Here is the chart
In this case, the X wave might take any shape from a simple zigzag to a flat that I have shown you with the red lines or even a triangle. So if this scenario plays out, I would expect more sideways action before heading down. In a couple of weeks there will be a clearer picture of which pattern will play out, but for now both scenarios are possible.

Good Luck:)